Daily note · 21 October 2026
Gold heads for a fourth loss as oil keeps inflation worries alive
Gold is on course for a fourth straight loss as an oil rally keeps inflation worries alive. Tuesday spiked to $4,156 in New York but faded to a $4,121 close. Asia set a lower low at $4,107 and capped rebounds near $4,131. At $4,114 gold sits well below its 20-day average, with the Asia high the first cap.
XAUUSD
$4,114.38
spot · 08:12 BST · −0.16%
DXY
101.81
Tue close 101.73
UST 2Y / 10Y
4.79% / 5.12%
CMT · 20 Oct
Catalyst
EIA crude stocks
15:30 BST · FOMC 27–28 Oct
Chart: gold futures GC=F daily candles with 20-day average (Yahoo Finance data, plotted 08:12 BST, 21 Oct 2026). Futures trade at a premium to spot, so chart levels differ from the spot strip.
BackdropOil, not the Fed, is setting the tone: energy-led inflation worries keep yields high and gold on the back foot.
Market structureEach bounce is being sold: Tuesday’s spike failed, and Asia made another lower low. Working range: $4,085–$4,135.
Educational market commentary for information and knowledge sharing only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer & risk warning.