Daily note · 19 October 2026
Gold opens the week firmer as Fed hike bets fade
Gold opened the week firmer as traders cut bets on an October Fed hike. Friday’s push to $4,199 faded into a $4,165 close and a 0.7% weekly loss. Asia held $4,166 and recovered to $4,188. At $4,186 gold sits just above its 20-day average, with $4,199 the first test.
XAUUSD
$4,185.68
spot · 08:11 BST · +0.50%
DXY
101.80
Fri close 101.84
UST 2Y / 10Y
4.74% / 5.09%
CMT · 16 Oct
Catalyst
Fed blackout
FOMC 27–28 Oct
Chart: gold futures GC=F daily candles with 20-day average (Yahoo Finance data, plotted 08:11 BST, 19 Oct 2026). Futures trade at a premium to spot, so chart levels differ from the spot strip.
BackdropFalling yields and softer oil have offset hot US inflation data, and the Fed chair’s silence has pushed October hike pricing lower.
Market structureGold has made a higher low for a second session and is back above its 20-day average, but Friday’s failure at $4,199 shows sellers are still active. Working range: $4,160–$4,220.
Educational market commentary for information and knowledge sharing only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer & risk warning.